Potential reforms will, however, likely face internal resistance from the traditional wing of the party. ... Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment. Required fields. Lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions will have a negative impact on global growth rates for at least the first half of 2021. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Turkey has also suggested including Yerevan in a regional cooperation platform alongside Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia if the country is perceived to pursue regional peace. Now, the world faces not only threats to its stability from many of the geopolitical risks that existed before the world had ever heard of Covid-19, but also from threats that have emerged as a result of the economic, political and social changes that have come about due to the impact of the ongoing pandemic. Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. On 19 April, Raul Castro will step down as the Communist Party’s First Secretary to make way for President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who will become the first person outside the Castro family to preside over Cuba in over 60 years. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. Social media companies will likely come under more pressure to crack down on harmful content. JANUARY: FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER UNCONFIRMED January. Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … PGI - Protection Group International Ltd is registered in England & Wales, reg. 1. Militants will continue to attempt to seize key settlements and sustain attacks on civilians and security forces. Of course, this list was compiled before we knew that the world would be confronted by its worst pandemic in a century, but as you can see, our forecasts for geopolitical risk in 2020 were nevertheless quite accurate: As we can see, many of our forecasts for the biggest geopolitical threats in 2020 came to fruition, even amid the disruptions caused over the course of the year by the impact of the pandemic. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. The threat posed by political violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has increased in the wake of the presidential election in December 2020. If Correa’s preferred candidate, Andres Arauz, fails to win the presidency, or if the result is disputed, unrest among his supporters is likely to be high. In an unprecedented demonstration of dissent, over 300 people rallied outside the Ministry of Culture on 27 November 2020 to protest the eviction of dissidents belonging to the San Isidro Movement, highlighting Cubans’ increasing willingness to organise public protests and demand greater freedoms. Top Risks 2021. Armenia has suffered from high unemployment and a weak economy in recent years. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. Militants could carry out road ambushes and kidnappings targeting employees near mining sites in southern and western Mali in order to deter further foreign investment. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. In late December 2020 to early January 2021, JNIM killed five French soldiers in two separate IED attacks in Mali’s Menaka and Mopti regions. Scottish fishermen have already halted exports to the EU over criticisms of the new requirement for health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork which add days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds in costs. The UK and EU are likely to form another agreement over services in the year ahead, though it is unclear what its terms will be and how they will affect the UK economy. For an optimal experience visit … OVERVIEW At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world's industrial democracies. Unrest among Trump’s supporters is unlikely to subside substantially in the year ahead. The Iranian navy is likely to continue harassing seaborne trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the Capitol riots, Twitter banned over 70,000 accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and Facebook blocked Trump’s account until Biden’s inauguration. The reasons are probably a combination of factors that include the pandemic, the rise of the global grid of cyberspace, plus the payoff of years of planning and strategic moves by our adversaries. no. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Email me. The North Korean leader’s comments are likely an effort to put pressure on the incoming US administration of Joe Biden to engage with Pyongyang. Peru’s 26 January legislative elections and 11 April presidential election are potential flashpoints for civil unrest following the controversial removal of the former president. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. The uptick in militant activity will continue to pose a threat to Mali’s extractive industry, particularly its gold mining sector. Tehran-backed militia groups are also likely to continue abducting and assassinating anti-government activists, which may prompt retaliatory attacks on Iranian diplomatic missions and businesses. Editor’s Note. The prime minister has faced rebellion from members of his coalition, resulting in the resignation of important ministers. 08-01-2021. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. It could also reaffirm the commonly held view among these groups that mainstream media and social media platforms are censoring conservative viewpoints. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events. The ceasefire deal could generate economic benefits to Armenia, relieving pressure on Pashinyan. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or commodities speculation or hedge trading. The risk of military conflict over Taiwan continues to grow, while Chinese foreign policy will become more aggressive. The election-related unrest is expected to spark a harsh response from security forces and government-aligned militias. As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. A resurgence of protests is likely if Piñera or the elected constitutional convention stall in implementing sought-after reforms. However, the rebel coalition may attempt to blockade Bangui, which would further undermine Touadera’s authority, increase food and resource insecurity, and bolster rebel group activity in areas outside of government control. Ecuador experienced mass protests over unpopular gasoline subsidy cuts in October 2019, and the country’s 7 February general election could reignite social tensions stemming from the issue. Email me. Militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province in late 2020. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities. Despite the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to have a profound impact on public health worldwide. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: As we prepare to say good-bye to one of the worst years, at least for much of the world, in recent history, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that geopolitical risk levels have continued to trend upwards over the past decade or more and are now at truly dangerous levels as we enter 2021. Contact us to discuss how we can help: riskanalysis@pgitl.com, If you have any questions about our services or would like to learn more about our consultants here at PGI, please get in touch with us and speak with one of the team, call us on +44 (0)845 600 4403 or email us at sales@pgitl.com, +44 (0) 845 600 4403 PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT. Confirmed cases and associated deaths are still rising in many countries, notably in Europe and North America, which is a trend that is unlikely to subside substantially in the first quarter of 2021. As the world struggles to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis – which has arguably been the most economically disruptive event since World War II – domestic and international politics will see major transformations. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … Or you may find a Geopolitical Risk Portal subscription helpful – we offer a 1-month free trial of the platform to allow you to test out the functionality. In August, the group occupied Mocimboa da Praia, subsequently using the strategically important port town as a base from which to expand operations. Reforms would likely be supported by the incoming US administration of Joe Biden, who has previously said he intends to reverse the Trump administration’s hard-line policies towards Cuba. Cyber Tipping Point. His position as a strong advocate for allowing internet access in Cuba also suggests the country may embrace a more moderate direction. Keeping track of what’s happening around the world can be a complex task, so if you need support we can help. Government forces have been bolstered by the arrival of troops, military instructors and equipment from Rwanda and Russia, and – with support from 12,800 UN peacekeepers in the country – will likely be able to thwart any attempts to capture Bangui. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. Even though oil prices are expected to rise as worldwide lockdowns and travel bans are lifted, the economy is unlikely to recover in the near-term, meaning there is a high risk of election-related nationwide protests, particularly in Baghdad and the southern regions. Increased militant activity in the wider Sahel region has also led to warnings of a heightened risk to foreign nationals in West African coastal cities, such as Accra, Abidjan and Dakar. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: The US-Chinese Cold War: Relations between the world’s two superpowers have fallen to their lowest level in decades.